Decision support · not a broker

Honest signals for restless markets.

Market Pulse turns machine-learning signals, regime context, and risk-based sizing into one clear daily read — for stocks and crypto. It never places a trade, and it never promises a profit.

The pipeline

Three honest steps from data to a read.

No black box bravado. Each signal is the product of three transparent stages — and we tell you the model's edge is slim.

01 / Model

A calibrated probability

A gradient-boosted classifier over eight momentum, trend and volume features returns a calibrated probability that price rises over the next three days — not a hunch, a number.

XGBoost · isotonic calibration · p_up
02 / Regime gate

Is the tape even safe?

The model ranks names against each other; it doesn't time the market. A breadth-and-trend gate scales conviction down when the broad tape turns hostile.

breadth · benchmark trend · scaled exposure
03 / Sizing

Survive before you thrive

Half-Kelly, the 1% rule, an ATR stop, and a portfolio-heat cap turn a signal into a position you can survive. Negative expectancy sizes to zero, by design.

half-Kelly · 1% risk · 8% heat cap
Radical honesty

We try to disprove our own ideas.

Most trading "edges" are noise wearing a nice chart. Every theory we test runs through a leak-free, cost-aware backtest with deflated-Sharpe scoring. Most come back REJECTED — and we keep the receipts in a research ledger inside the app.

A refuted idea isn't a failure. It's the only reason to trust the ones that survive.

RESEARCH LEDGER · 2026-06-28exp-base-rate-audit
REJECTED
"The AAPL signal has a real conditional edge."
Refuted — filed as a negative result. A correctly failed gate is a finding, not a failure.
buy_edge (updown)+0.026
buy_edge (neutral)−0.016
base rate0.574
deflated Sharpe0.00
Coverage

A focused watchlist, honestly sourced.

Liquid US equities via end-of-day data, major crypto via exchange pairs — a deliberate set kept tight so every read is fresh, not a thousand stale tickers.

Equities
SPY
QQQ
AAPL
MSFT
NVDA
TSLA
AMD
Crypto · /USD pairs
BTC/USD
ETH/USD
SOL/USD
Private beta

Read the market. Make your own call.

Market Pulse is in private testing. It's a research and decision-support tool for people who want a sharper, more honest read — not a tip service.

Market Pulse is decision-support software for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, not a broker, and not a signal-for-profit service. It does not place trades or move money. Markets involve risk of loss; the model's measured edge is slim and may be zero. You are responsible for every decision you make.